The article from The Economist editor, Tom Standage, introduces the rapidly changing global landscape of 2023 and anticipates ten key trends for 2024. They are:
- Vote-a-rama! With more than 70 elections all over the world in 2024, more voters than ever before will cast their vote in countries that are home to more than 4 billion people. But despite more people voting than ever, many elections will neither be free nor fair.
- America’s global choice. The outcome of the US presidential election may come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But the consequences will be global and far-reaching, from climate change to support for Ukraine.
- Step up, Europe. Europe will have to provide more economic and military support to Ukraine and offer it a path to EU membership, especially if Mr. Trump regains power and withdraws support.
- Middle East turmoil. In 2024, the conflict between Israel and Hamas could become a wider regional conflict or offer a new chance for peace. But it will also test America’s ability to deal with a more complex and dangerous world.
- Multipolar disorder. America foreign policy focus was derailed by the war in Ukraine and Gaza. The world might see more volatility, as frozen conflicts thaw and local cold wars heat up now that America’s “unipolar moment” has ended.
- A second cold war. The rivalry between America and China will intensify as China’s growth slows, tensions rise over Taiwan, and America restricts China’s access to advanced technologies.
- New energy geography. Because of the green transition, lithium, copper, and nickel will matter more, while oil and gas, and the regions that supply it, will matter less. This is re-shaping geopolitics.
- Economic uncertainty. Despite faring better than expected, western economies will continue to face several challenges. China may fall into deflation.
- AI gets real. Technology companies continue to develop it, businesses are adopting it, regulators are regulating it. New uses and abuses will appear. AI’s biggest impact so far? Faster coding.
- Uniting the world? Some events in 2024 might unite the world: France hosting the Olympics, astronauts (maybe) looping around the Moon, and the men’s T20 cricket World Cup.
